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Posts Tagged ‘interest rate’

Effects of the Credit Downgrade

Late Friday afternoon, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) announced it was downgrading the credit rating of U.S. Treasury securities from AAA to AA+ and retained its negative outlook.  Although S&P previously announced it was considering a downgrade, the announcement was a bombshell dropped at the end of a tumultuous week of economic and political news.

  • After weeks of political posturing and rancorous debate, Congress passed the Budget Control Act of 2011, increasing the debt ceilingPresident Obama signed the legislation on August 2, thereby avoiding a potential default by the U.S. government.
  • After the debt deal was done, Moody’s and Fitch Ratings announced they would retain their AAA rating of U.S. Treasuries but continue to monitor U.S. fiscal health.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended a 9-day losing streak with a blistering 334 point decline; wiping out all of the gains for 2011.
  • S&P capped the week by announcing their downgrade.

Since Friday afternoon, politicians, economists, and pundits have been discussing the impact of the downgrade.  There has also been a lot of pointing fingers of who is to blame for  tarnishing the image of the U.S.  It has also left a lot of people wondering about the real implications of a downgrade in the credit rating of the U.S. Government.

Here are a couple of things I think you can expect from the downgrade.

  • There is a bruising to the American pride and psyche.  Nothing has changed since Friday, but most Americans want to believe we are the best of the best.  The downgrade is likely to increase the uncertainty and pessimism of the American consumer.
  • Interest rates won’t change immediately.  Interest rates are effectively determined by the free markets, not by S&P.  A credit ratings agency simply tries to assess the risk of a particular security, but it’s up to the market to decide the interest rate.  Don’t expect interest rates to change in the near future, but there could be some upward pressure on rates if investors become more leery about the fiscal stability of the U.S. government.
  • The stock markets aren’t going to crash.  As anticipated, the markets were battered yesterday and lost about 5% of their value, but it’s not a direct correlation to the S&P ratings change.  Remember the Dow took a 334 point hit last week before S&P made its announcement.   Furthermore, the 10-year Treasury yield fell from Friday’s rate of 3.558%. This means investors bought more Treasuries; the very securities that are supposedly more risky.  The selloff is more attributable to the poor outlook of the global economy and European sovereign debt worries.  Investors are seeking stability, so they’re buying up Treasuries and gold.

There is one potential redeeming element which may come from the downgrade, but it’s far from certain.  This might serve as a wake-up call for our political leaders to get serious about the fiscal future of our country.  As I wrote last week, the debt deal was long on promises and short on spending cuts.  In my opinion, a 0.6% cut in spending for 2012 is a pittance in light of overall spending.  The rating downgrade could prompt our leaders to get serious about tackling the debt and deficit.

No longer is it just extreme fiscal conservatives who think it unrealistic for the U.S. government to overspend by $1 trillion each year without consequence.  Standard & Poor’s is a significant player in the global economy.  You may question the timing and motivation of their downgrade, but it should serve as a clarion call of the long-term risks and ramifications of our debt and deficit spending.  I can only hope our politicians are listening and have the courage to do something about it.

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Controlling Economic Growth with the Federal Reserve Discount Rate

The Federal Reserve (the Fed) is charged with managing the U.S. money supply and keeping inflation in check.  Increasing the money supply (i.e., printing money) is intended to spur economic growth.  Additional money is supposed to make it less expensive to borrow, thereby encouraging investment and growth. It also devalues the dollar against other currencies, which should increase exports by making American goods less expensive to buy internationally.

The Conference Board includes the Federal Reserve money supply as part of its composite index of leading economic indicators.  Bankers, economists, currency traders and exporters are particularly tuned into the supply of money in the financial system.    

The discount rate is another primary tool the Fed utilizes to achieve its objectives.  The discount rate is the interest rate the Fed charges other banks to borrow from it. 

If banks are in the business of lending money, why are they borrowing from the Fed?  It’s called leverage.  Being able to borrow money from the Fed allows banks to leverage their deposits and loans.  Banks only keep a fraction of the money deposited to them on hand.  The rest is loaned out.  However, if you want your money, they have to be able to pay you when you to withdraw it.  The ability to borrow from the Fed allows banks the ability to keep fewer reserves and lend more money. Consequently, the discount rate affects the interest rate banks charge you to borrow money.

In general, the Fed increases the discount rate when the economy is doing well.  Raising the interest rate slows growth, which is intended to keep inflation in check.  Furthermore, in good economic times, people don’t need as much of an incentive to take risks or borrow money and are willing to pay a higher interest rate to access capital.  Conversely, in recessionary times, the Fed will reduce the discount rate to lower lending rates and spur economic growth. 

If you study the history of the Fed discount rate, you’ll see increases during periods of economic prosperity and rate cuts during recessions.  The size and timing of the rate cuts or increases are indications of the economic conditions. 

This is evidenced in the Fed discount rate over the past two years. The Fed dropped the rate seven times in 2008, reducing the rate by 0.75% three times.  The rate was 0.5% at the end of 2008, and hasn’t been that low in over 30 years.  This is an indication of the severity of the current recession, as if you needed another sign.

The Fed raised the rate 0.25% in February 2010, on signs the economy was strengthening.  However, the Fed has indicated that it doesn’t expect any rate increases for an extended period of time.  With rumblings that the recovery is slowing, the Fed may be pushed to lower the rate once again, but it doesn’t have much further it can go.

You don’t have to wear yourself out trying to understand monetary policy, money supply and inflation factors.  If you want to get a quick synopsis of the Fed’s current view on the economy, just watch their action on the discount rate.  No change means you can expect things to stay the same for a while.  A reduction is a sign of trouble, and an increase is an indication that things are getting better.

With the Fed saying that they expect to hold the discount rate static for an extended period of time, you can expect the economy to continue to slog along.  It may not be great, but hopefully it doesn’t get worse.