Home > Government & Politics > Where Did The Money Come From?

Where Did The Money Come From?

paying taxesThe Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released their preliminary estimate of the monthly budget deficit for January.  The CBO estimated the government overspent by a measly $2 billion in January 2013. This compares to a monthly deficit of $27 billion in January 2012.

Hold on before you think we’re making much progress towards reducing the $1 trillion plus deficits of the past four years.  This was only one month out of twelve.  The CBO estimates the cumulative deficit for the past four months is $295 billion (the U.S. fiscal year starts on October 1), and the Fiscal 2013 total deficit is projected to be $850 billion.

The CBO reported a $36 billion uptick in revenues collected in January 2013 over those collected in January 2012.  Some politicians and pundits are already citing these numbers as being indicative of the success of the increased taxes, which were part of the fiscal cliff deal reached on January 1, 2013. It’s a stretch to make this claim, but that rarely matters in the world of politics.

The CBO estimated the government collected $9 billion more in Social Security taxes.  These additional taxes arose from the additional Social Security taxes collected after January 1, 2013.  The 2% temporary tax holiday was scheduled to expire December 31, 2012, and further extension was never a serious consideration.  Social Security is already headed towards insolvency, and continuing a reduced rate would have only exacerbated the problem.  It’s a stretch, but since Congress could have extended the lower rate, you could make the argument these additional revenues were part of the fiscal cliff deal.

Although the remaining additional $27 billion may have been collected in 2013, most of it is not attributable to the fiscal cliff deal.  The increased tax rates only affected high income individuals on income earned after January 1, 2013.  Most super wealthy people pay their taxes through estimates, not withholdings, and the first quarterly payment is not due until April 15th.  Thus, the first real increase in revenue from the higher 2013 taxes won’t be collected by the Treasury until April 2013.

So where did the money come from?  In all likelihood, most of it was additional 2012 taxes which were paid in 2013.  Quarterly estimated taxes for individuals are due April 15th, June 15th, September 15th and January 15th of the following year.  Based on my experience, most wealthy people pay their fourth quarter installment in January of the following year.  Odds are that most of the additional $27 billion in tax revenues actually relates to taxes paid for 2012, not the increased taxes due for 2013.  It’s a reasonable conclusion, since many high income taxpayers accelerated income into 2012 to avoid the anticipated higher 2013 tax rates.

The additional revenues may be good for the country and the economy.  However, I think it’s a little too early to declare success and victory from the increased tax rates.  I believe the verdict is still out, but to make a fair assessment, you have to understand where the money comes from.

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